Pre-tourney Rankings
Mountain West
2013-14


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
29 San Diego St. 99.8%   5   27 - 4 16 - 2 27 - 4 16 - 2 +12.7      +2.3 117 +10.4 6 64.2 270 +17.4 7 +16.2 1
31 New Mexico 100.0%   6   27 - 6 15 - 3 27 - 6 15 - 3 +11.9      +6.3 35 +5.6 47 67.0 197 +13.9 20 +13.9 2
68 Boise St. 0.1%   19 - 13 9 - 9 19 - 13 9 - 9 +7.3      +7.3 23 0.0 171 66.0 227 +6.0 84 +4.3 5
77 UNLV 0.0%   20 - 13 10 - 8 20 - 13 10 - 8 +6.7      +2.5 112 +4.2 64 70.3 113 +4.9 99 +5.5 3
109 Wyoming 0.0%   16 - 14 9 - 9 16 - 14 9 - 9 +3.9      +0.4 162 +3.5 83 57.5 345 +3.0 128 +3.3 7
118 Utah St. 0.0%   17 - 14 7 - 11 17 - 14 7 - 11 +3.4      +3.8 79 -0.4 183 61.4 319 +3.8 118 +1.4 8
123 Fresno St. 0.0%   15 - 16 9 - 9 15 - 16 9 - 9 +3.1      +4.0 74 -0.9 205 68.7 152 +3.2 122 +3.7 6
132 Colorado St. 0.0%   14 - 16 7 - 11 14 - 16 7 - 11 +2.4      +3.6 88 -1.2 209 68.6 158 +0.8 153 +1.0 9
139 Nevada 0.0%   15 - 17 10 - 8 15 - 17 10 - 8 +1.9      +2.6 110 -0.7 192 66.1 219 +2.1 135 +5.3 4
225 Air Force 0.0%   10 - 18 6 - 12 10 - 18 6 - 12 -3.6      -3.1 259 -0.6 189 64.8 255 -3.0 213 -0.3 10
284 San Jose St. 0.0%   5 - 24 1 - 17 5 - 24 1 - 17 -7.4      -7.6 331 +0.2 165 67.1 192 -7.0 273 -12.4 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
San Diego St. 1.0 100.0
New Mexico 2.0 100.0
Boise St. 5.0 100.0
UNLV 3.0 100.0
Wyoming 5.0 100.0
Utah St. 8.0 100.0
Fresno St. 5.0 100.0
Colorado St. 8.0 100.0
Nevada 3.0 100.0
Air Force 10.0 100.0
San Jose St. 11.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
San Diego St. 16 - 2 100.0
New Mexico 15 - 3 100.0
Boise St. 9 - 9 100.0
UNLV 10 - 8 100.0
Wyoming 9 - 9 100.0
Utah St. 7 - 11 100.0
Fresno St. 9 - 9 100.0
Colorado St. 7 - 11 100.0
Nevada 10 - 8 100.0
Air Force 6 - 12 100.0
San Jose St. 1 - 17 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
San Diego St. 100.0% 100.0
New Mexico
Boise St.
UNLV
Wyoming
Utah St.
Fresno St.
Colorado St.
Nevada
Air Force
San Jose St.


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
San Diego St. 99.8% 0.0% 99.8% 5   0.0 0.2 4.6 29.1 40.9 19.7 4.9 0.4 0.0 0.2 99.8%
New Mexico 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 6   0.0 0.0 0.6 9.0 29.5 34.8 21.0 4.5 0.6 0.1
Boise St. 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1 99.9 0.1%
UNLV 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Wyoming 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Utah St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Colorado St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Nevada 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
San Diego St. 99.8% 0.0% 99.8% 67.5% 31.0% 11.5% 4.4% 1.5% 0.5%
New Mexico 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 58.0% 23.1% 8.4% 2.8% 1.0% 0.3%
Boise St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNLV 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wyoming 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colorado St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nevada 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.0 0.2 99.7 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 2.0 0.2 99.7 0.1
2nd Round 86.3% 1.3 13.7 47.1 39.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 47.4% 0.5 52.6 40.7 6.8
Elite Eight 19.0% 0.2 81.0 18.2 0.8
Final Four 7.2% 0.1 92.8 7.1 0.1
Final Game 2.5% 0.0 97.5 2.5 0.0
Champion 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.7